Himalayagate

Mijn trouwe lezers zullen zich waarschijnlijk nog de rel rond de foute gegevens in het rapport van het VN-klimaatpanel (IPCC) herinneren over het afsmelten van de Himalaya-gletsjers, hetgeen bekend werd als Himalayagate. De voorzitter van het IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, reageerde hierop als door een wesp gestoken. Hij ontkende in eerste instantie alle kritiek op de bewering dat deze in 2035 zouden zijn gesmolten. Hij ging zelfs zo ver de Indiase regering te beschuldigen van 'arrogantie' omdat deze stelde dat dit onzin was. Volgens 'The Guardian' zou Pachauri hebben gezegd dat dergelijke uitspraken deden denken aan "climate change deniers and school boy science".

Later heeft hij zijn onbesuisde uitspraken afgezwakt. Maar nog steeds kan het IPCC het niet laten. 'The Telegraph' meldt: 'Himalayan Glacier are melting after all':

Himalayan glaciers are melting, says IPCC research The Himalayan glaciers are melting after all, according to new research released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The research was released in an effort to draw a line under the embarrassing mistakes made about the effects of global warming on the region in the past. The IPCC were forced to apologise for claiming that the Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035. The 2009 scandal, known as ‘Himalayagate’ led to criticism of the IPCC, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to warn governments around the world about the effects of climate change. In an effort to move on from the embarrassing episode, Dr Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, has now announced that the latest statistics show the glaciers are melting, according to the limited amount of science available. The reports, presented at the UN climate change talks in Durban were brought together by the the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). ...

En opnieuw bakken ellende!

The melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas could have a devastating effect on both animals and people. Some 1.3 billion rely on water flowing from the mountains, which could dry up if the glaciers melt. Dr Pachauri, who weathered much of the criticism over ‘Himalayagate’, said the reports show the impact climate change could have on mountainous regions. “These reports provide a new baseline and location-specific information for understanding climate change in one of the most vulnerable ecosytems in the world,” he said. “They substantially deepen our understanding of this region – and of all mountain systems – while also pointing to the knowledge gaps yet to be filled and actions that must be taken to deal with the challenge of climate change globally and to minimise the risks from impacts locally.”

Maar Richard Armstrong, een geograaf verbonden aan het 'Colorado University’s National Snow and Ice Centre', heeft toch een wat minder alarmistische kijk op de ontwikkelingen. Christopher Pala interviewde hem.

Hij rapporteert:

High glaciers such as this one in the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan are said to be safe from global warming. Global warming will melt far less of the glaciers of Central Asia than of those in other mountain ranges, shielding the people who depend on them for water from the effects of climate change for several decades at least, scientists say.

The mountains in and around the Himalayas are so high, unlike in the Andes, the Alps or the Rockies, that even in summer, temperatures remain below freezing point and most of the glaciers don’t melt away at all, Richard Armstrong, a geographer at Colorado University’s National Snow and Ice Centre, tells IPS. "It doesn’t make much difference if it gets a little warmer up there because it’s still far below zero."

Glaciers are rivers of ice fed by snowfall at the top. As they flow downhill to warmer temperatures, they eventually melt, providing water in summer, when rainfall is usually lowest. .. Armstrong said there is a lot of misinformation in the public arena regarding glaciers, including reports that glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than anywhere else in the world and that if this rapid melting continues, rivers are on track to first flood and then dry up.

"Those reports simply are not true," says Armstrong. "There is a lot of international interest in accurate water resource data from the High Asia region and what the water security consequences are, since water conflicts between countries can escalate rapidly," adds Mark Williams of the same university’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. Glaciers in other, lower parts of the world melt in summer over their entire course, so if temperature increases, they melt faster. If temperatures keep rising and that loss is not compensated by increased snowfall in winter – and in some of those glaciers it is – the entire glacier will eventually disappear, Armstrong explains.

With it, the summer melt water prized by irrigation farmers, households and users of electricity produced by dams could also disappear. "But High Asia is different because it’s so much higher," he says, referring to the Himalaya, Pamir, Karakoram, Hindu Kush and Tian Shan ranges that straddle parts of China, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. "About half of the surface of the glaciers there is above 5,500 metres," he says, the point at which glaciers never melt. These glaciers include the longest in the world outside of the polar regions, the Fedchenko, which is 77 km long (the longest, the Lambert in Antarctica, is over 400 km long). ...

Lees verder hier.

Zullen deze geruststellende onderzoekstresultaten ook in het volgende rapport van het IPCC aan bod komen? Reken er maar niet op. Waarschijnlijker is: 'Het is nóg erger dan we al dachten!

Er gaat toch maar niets boven datavrije wetenschap.

En wat Pachauri betreft? Een vos verliest wèl zijn haren, maar niet zijn streken. Ongewild is hij misschien de grootste troef van de klimaatsceptici. Als geen ander is hij voortdurend bezig de geloofwaardigheid van het IPCC te ondergraven. Daar kan geen klimaatscepticus aan tippen!