Massawaan en klimaatcomplex

Van tijd tot tijd verschijnen er goede en toegankelijke overzichten van de klimaat'problematiek', geschreven voor mensen die daar weinig van afweten en die zich in kort bestek op de hoogte willen stellen van wat er nu eigenlijk aan de hand is.

Onlangs is er weer zo'n overzicht verschenen, getiteld: 'The Truth About Greenhouse Gasses', van de hand van William Happer, hoogleraar aan de Princeton universiteit. In zijn analyse bekritiseert Happer de paniekzaaierij over de uitstoot van CO2 alsmede de gebruikelijke overdrijvingen van de mogelijke invloed en risico's van de opwarming van de aarde. In het bijzonder betreurt hij de invloed die de overheid op de klimaatwetenschap uitoefent.

Happer behandelt wat hij de 'hedendaagse morele epidemie' van het klimaatalarmisme noemt, te weten: de gedachte dat een toeneming van de concentratie van broeikasgassen in de atmosfeer, in het bijzonder CO2, catastrofale gevolgen zal hebben voor de mensheid en voor onze planeet. Hij bepleit een nuchtere en evenwichtige beoordeling op basis van empirische waarnemingen - niet op basis van computermodellen.

'CO2 veroorzaakt inderdaad enige opwarming van de aarde. Ceteris paribus, zal meer CO2 meer opwarming veroorzaken. De vraag is echter hoeveel opwarming en of de door de extra CO2 veroorzaakte opwarming goed of slecht zal zijn voor onze planeet.' Aldus Happer.

Aan de inleiding ontleen ik het volgende:

“The object of the Author in the following pages has been to collect the most remarkable instances of those moral epidemics which have been excited, sometimes by one cause and sometimes by another, and to show how easily the masses have been led astray, and how imitative and gregarious men are, even in their infatuations and crimes,” wrote Charles Mackay in the preface to the first edition of his Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

I want to discuss a contemporary moral epidemic: the notion that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, will have disastrous consequences for mankind and for the planet. This contemporary “climate crusade” has much in common with the medieval crusades Mackay describes, with true believers, opportunists, cynics, money-hungry governments, manipulators of various types, and even children’s crusades.

Interessant is in dit verband Happer's vergelijking van de kluwen van klimaatbelangen met de invloed van het militair-industrieel complex, waarvoor de Amerikaanse president Dwight Eisenhower destijds waarschuwde.

Many Americans still remember the wise words of President Eisenhower in his farewell address of 1960, where he warned us against the “military industrial complex.” Few remember the following paragraphs in the same speech: “Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades. In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research.

Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers. The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system -- ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.”

Does this sound familiar? What would Eisenhower say about the frenzy over supposed human-induced climate change and the amazing scientific, industrial and governmental crusade that has coalesced around it?

Lees verder hier

Happer's analyse is ongetwijfeld een aanrader voor iedereen die zich in een half uurtje in de klimaatmaterie wil inlezen.