Halvering gasprijzen?

De ontwikkeling van de gasprijzen heeft grote invloed op de toekomst van duurzame energie.

De verwachtingen omtrent de toekomstige rentabiliteit van duurzame energie worden in hoge mate bepaald door het prijsverloop van concurrerende fossiele energie, in het bijzonder gas. Tot voor kort werd aangenomen dat de prijs daarvan zou blijven stijgen. Door de komst van schaliegas ziet de toekomst er nu heel anders uit. Een halvering van de gasprijs wordt niet uitgesloten geacht.

Onder de titel, 'Shale boom promises to deliver gas price bonus ', schreef Tim Webb in 'The Times':

Gas prices in Britain could halve after 2030 because of the global shale gas revolution, according to a report that is at odds with the latest government forecasts. Surging shale gas production in the United States and China and lower oil prices mean that gas prices will fall from nearly 70p a therm today to 60p by the end of the decade and then rise gently, according to a report by Navigant.

The consultancy was commissioned by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to study the impact that booming global unconventional gas production will have on UK prices over the next 20 years. Its findings contrast with DECC forecasts, also published yesterday, in which prices will rise to 73½p over the same period. Under Navigant’s best-case scenario, in which Britain and other parts of Europe become leading shale gas producers after 2020, gas prices would fall to 50p by 2030 and to 35p soon thereafter.

Analysts said that the findings further undermine the Government’s economic justification for building expensive wind farms and nuclear reactors, which is based on an assumption that fossil fuel prices will keep rising so consumers will eventually save money. DECC’s publication of the forecasts coincided with additional details on how it plans to subsidise a new wave of low-carbon forms of electricity generation to meet ambitious environmental targets and keep the lights on.

Ministers have argued that despite the high upfront cost of building nuclear reactors and wind farms, they will work out cheaper in the long run compared with gas because they believe that prices will rise. But if Navigant is correct and prices fall, consumers will not fully benefit through cheaper energy bills because under the Government’s plans gas plants will mainly be used as back-up for wind farms when the wind does not blow.

Peter Atherton, a Liberum Capital analyst, said that the Government had failed to take into account properly the impact of the shale oil and gas phenomena of the past few years. “The Government’s economic case for decarbonising has not changed,” he said. “It’s based on the premise that fossil fuels are becoming increasingly scarce and will push up prices. This argument now looks perilously weak. ...

The Government also appeared to scale back its offshore wind programme, which spooked the industry. Last month officials forecast that Britain’s capacity of 3.3 gigawatts could increase to between 12GW and 16GW by the end of the decade. But under one scenario published yesterday, only 9GW would be in operation by the end of 2030. Even under a central scenario, only 18GW would be installed by then, suggesting that the Government believes the construction of new offshore wind farms will slow markedly in the next decade.

Lees verder hier.

Voor de tegenstanders van windenergie is er dus nog hoop dat de megalomane bouwplannen voor windenergie op zijn minst gedeeltelijk zullen worden afgeblazen. De tucht van de markt!

Voor mijn eerdere DDS-bijdragen, zie hier.