Geopolitieke gevolgen van de energierevolutie

Gisteren schreef ik over de wederzijdse afhankelijkheid van energieproducenten en –verbruikers, die een gunstige invloed uitoefent op de stabiliteit van de mondiale energiemarkt. Maar er staan toch grote veranderingen voor de deur. 

Nieuwe grote vondsten van fossiele energie, in het bijzonder schalieolie en –gas, zullen waarschijnlijk leiden tot revolutionaire verschuivingen op de geopolitieke landkaart, waarbij de rol van sommige landen belangrijker zal worden en die van andere minder prominent. Met hun enorme energiereserves zal de betekenis van de VS en Canada toenemen. De rol van de OPEC en Rusland zal daarentegen aan betekenis inboeten. Het schrikbeeld van de 'oliepiek' is verbleekt en naar St. Juttemis verschoven. Er worden in het algemeen geen (sterke) prijsstijgingen meer verwacht. De rol van duurzame energie zal marginaal blijven.

Onder de titel, 'The Energy Revolution Part One: The Biggest Losers', schijft Walter Russell Mead op de website van 'The American Interest':

Over the past year, we’ve been watching a geopolitical revolution get underway. It’s much bigger and more consequential than the Arab Spring, though the legacy media are giving it much less play. It will rearrange the global chessboard, improving the position of some powers, weakening others. It is a powerful boost to American power, reducing America’s strategic and economic liabilities while adding considerably to its assets. And it dramatically changes the long term outlook for, among other things, the US dollar. In line with Via Meadia‘s policy of trying to focus attention on the most consequential events of the time, we will be following this story as it unfolds, looking at the implications of the shifts now underway for world politics, the US economy, our domestic politics, and the green movement.
 
While the chattering classes yammered on about American decline and peak oil, a quite different future is taking shape. A world energy revolution is underway and it will be shaping the realities of the 21st century when the Crash of 2008 and the Great Stagnation that followed only interest historians.  A new age of abundance for fossil fuels is upon us.  And the center of gravity of the global energy picture is shifting from the Middle East to North America.
 
The two biggest winners look to be Canada and the United States. Canada, with something like two trillion barrels worth of conventional oil in its tar sands, and the United States with about a trillion barrels of shale oil, are the planet’s new super giant energy powers. Throw in natural gas and coal, and the United States is better supplied with fossil fuels than any other country on earth. Canada and the United States are each richer in oil than Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia combined.

In Israël circuleert een bekend grapje dat God het niet zo goed met de Joden voorhad, want anders had hij Mozes niet uitgerekend naar de enige plek in het Midden Oosten gestuurd waar geen olie was te vinden. Dat lijkt nu te gaan veranderen.

The other important change in the new world energy picture is one I wrote about earlier this week: Israel’s potential emergence as a major oil and gas producer. With trillions of cubic feet of natural gas, and potentially as much as 250 billion barrels of recoverable shale oil, Israel may be on the verge of joining the wealthiest Arab states as a world class energy producer.
 
These changes won’t take place overnight, but they are coming faster than many understand. ...

Since the 1970s, the states on both sides of the Gulf have been central to all kinds of global issues, and the great powers have focused enormous amounts of time and attention on their wants and needs. As the energy revolution proceeds, they won’t completely sink into insignificance (and the US concern to protect the independence of countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the rest won’t disappear), but the days when the world hung on every word that fell from the lips of OPEC are gone.

Lees verder hier.

In deze crisistijd is dit goede nieuws van het energiefront meer dan welkom.

Voor mijn eerdere DDS-bijdragen, zie: