Duitse 'mainstream' klimatologen twijfelen over hervatting opwarming

De klimaat'consensus' kantelt hoe langer hoe meer.

Reeds verschillende malen heb ik aandacht geschonken aan wetenschappers die verwachten dat we afkoeling zullen krijgen in plaats van opwarming. Dat zijn vooral astrofysici, die wijzen op de invloed van de zon, die zich al geruime tijd in een weinig actieve fase bevindt. Vele mainstream klimatologen lijken echter van mening te zijn dat de opwarming weer elk ogenblik zou kunnen beginnen. Maar een groep Duitse mainstream klimatologen heeft onlangs een verklaring uitgegeven dat zij daar niet meer zo zeker van zijn – niet omdat zij aan de zon een grote rol toeschrijven, maar omdat zij natuurlijke variaties groter achten dan eerder werd aangenomen.

Onder de titel, 'Climate Custers’ Last Stand…Top German Climate Scientists See No End To “Warming Pause”. Now Concede Oceans A “Major Climate Factor”', rapporteerde Pierre Gosselin:

Germany’s so-called Climate Consortium here has published a telling statement on this year’s “record warm year” in Germany and the reasons behind it. The Climate Consortium represents the collective position of all Germany’s scientific climate institutes.

Although the statement claims the record year “fits very well in the picture of a long-term global temperature increase” it now concedes major natural fluctuations in the climate system. Less than 3 years ago, on February 6, 2012, the same site posted the following in a hasty response to skeptic book Die kalte Sonne:

Pure natural fluctuations – such as changes in solar activity – on the other hand cannot be mainly responsible for the global warming of the past decades.”

What a difference a couple of years can make. Now they are blaming precisely these “natural fluctuations” for the “warming pause”.

Yesterday’s statement was authored by Germany’s top appointed climate experts (some are well-known IPCC scientists): Jochen Marotzke, Paul Becker, Gernot Klepper, Mojib Latif and Monika Rhein.

Does anyone think they will do the honorable thing and admit that Die kalte Sonne authors Prof. Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning claims had merit after all? Professional and honorable scientists would certainly do so.

On the surface the latest German Climate Consortium statement does its best to give the façade of a warming planet, but in the text the truth comes gushing out. They write that at 10.3°C, Germany this year is set to break the previous 2000 and 2007 record (9.9°C) for the highest mean annual temperature since recording began in 1881. But the statement then cautions:

However, only the global mean temperature is a reliable indicator of global warming. If one takes the preliminary data for the months of January to November 2014 as a reference, then, since systematic data recording began, fourteen of the last fifteen warmest years occurred in the 21st century.

Moreover it is too early to talk about an end to the now 15-year long ‘warming pause’ and to assume an accelerating warming over the coming years. The global earth’s surface temperature is subject to year-to-year and decadal fluctuations. Only with the following years will it be possible to judge to what extent global warming of the earth’s surface will resume.”

This is an interesting statement. The scientists now concede that natural factors now dominate, and that the upcoming years will answer the hotly debated question concerning the extent of man-made warming.

And we all thought it was all settled.

More concessions, admissions soon likely. ...

[W]e can all safely assume that 2015 will be a warm one globally. But after that the warmists will really have to start sweating. Chances are good that a La Niña will follow, and its cooling effects will be further compounded by the death of SC24 [Solar Cycle 24] and an AMO heading down towards its cold phase.

Right now it’s best to ignore all the day-to-day hollering and to just be patient. The next 8 years or so will decide the issue once and for all. …

Aldus Pierre Gosselin.

Lees verder hier.

En zo kantelt de klimaat'consensus' verder. Maar daarom niet getreurd. Men verzet eenvoudigweg de doelpalen.

Voor mijn eerdere DDS–bijdragen zie hier.