Deskundigen speculeren dat schaliegasrevolutie tot halvering olieprijs kan leiden
Een infuus voor een kwakkelende economie!
De Britse Geologische Dienst heeft vastgesteld dat Groot-Brittannië op een enorme gasbel zit. Exploitering daarvan zou de Britse economie weer uit het slop kunnen halen.
Onder de titel, 'Huge UK shale gas reserves - 'let's get fracking', schreef Benny Peiser:
Britain is on the cusp of a shale gas revolution, which can rejuvenate the flagging economy and bring cheap power to millions of people says think-tank.
Britain has just won the world's biggest energy jackpot, potentially worth a staggering £1trillion. Yesterday it emerged that the United Kingdom not only holds the biggest shale basin in the world but that Britain most likely has the biggest shale reserves worldwide.
The British Geological Survey released a study that estimates there could be 1,300 trillion cubic feet or tcf - of shale gas trapped in the Bowland shale basin alone. In fact, the BGS's upper estimate is a staggering 2,281 tcf - almost the total estimated American shale reserve of 2,500 tcf. Incredibly, this estimate does not include the huge shale reserves in the South of England or the Central Basin in Scotland. In fact, there are many other shale areas in Britain. And then there are Britain's gigantic offshore shale reserves. According to the British Geological Survey, the UK's offshore shale reserves could be five to ten times as high as onshore. ...
With energy imports reduced, the UK will gain significantly from the shale gas revolution. Cheaper energy would make British manufacturing more competitive. Gas and electricity bills would fall and the rising trend in fuel poverty could be reversed. Because of the potential scale of UK shale drilling, significant levels of employment will be created or supported across a broad range of job sectors. Energy-intensive industries and manufacturers that have been considering relocating their operations abroad due to increasing energy costs are more likely to stay.
Lees verder hier.
En hoe zit het in Nederland? Daarover horen we niet veel. Toch is er een aantal jaren geleden een TNO-rapport uitgebracht, waarin op basis van ruwe geologische informatie werd gesteld dat de Nederlandse gasvoorraden aanmerkelijk groter zouden zijn dan in onze stoutste dromen voor mogelijk werd gehouden.
Lees verder hier.
Het ligt in de lijn der verwachting dat de schaliegasrevolutie een neerwaartse druk op de olieprijs zal uitoefenen, die tot een ingrijpende herschikking van de internationale energiemarkt en aanpassing van energiehandelsstromen zal leiden. Maar hoeveel zal de olieprijs mogelijk zakken?
Onder de titel, 'Shale Revolution Could Halve Oil Price' rapporteert Juliet Samuel in 'The Times':
The price of oil could halve within the next decade because of a shale revolution, according to industry experts. John Llewellyn, the former head of international forecasting at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said that most oil price forecasts underestimated radically the impact of new extraction techniques for shale oil and gas on supply. Official estimates last week revealed that Britain was sitting on enough shale gas to power the country for 43 years, although it remains years from extraction. Cheap gas helps to lower the oil price and many shale rocks also contain oil.
In a report written with Puma Energy, the fuel business owned by Trafigura, Dr Llewellyn said that a shift taking place in oil markets between now and 2020 could reverse the significant change that took place in the 1970s, when the price doubled and the United States became a large net importer of oil. Oil costs more than $100 a barrel today. [That change] contributed importantly to the quadrupling of the world price of energy in 1973-74 and the further double in 1978-79. If, as expected, the US becomes energy self-sufficient over the coming 20 years, the shift could be equally profound, the report states.
One chief executive of a FTSE 100 oil and gas producer said that if shale gas did result in a long-term US gas price close to $5 or $6, that would equate to only $35 a barrel for oil. Even with a premium paid for oil being in a more convenient form than gas, that puts the likely future price of oil at a fraction of current expectations.
Lees verder hier.
Eindelijk een lichtpunt in deze economisch sombere tijden! Maar we moeten niet te vroeg juichen. Duurzaamheidszeloten zullen ongetwijfeld alles in het werk stellen om de exploitatie van schaliegas te dwarsbomen.
Voor mijn eerdere DDSbijdragen, zie hier.
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