In Duitsland verdwijnen tienduizenden groene banen

Alweer een sprookje minder.

Onze groenbevlogen medemensen hebben ons altijd voorgehouden dat groene banen een oplossing voor het werkloosheidsvraagstuk zouden kunnen vormen. Thans wordt hoe langer hoe duidelijker dat het tegendeel het geval is. Wegens het slinken van de orderportefeuilles in de zonne– en windsector zijn inmiddels tienduizenden ontslagen in Duitsland gevallen. Het heeft de ogen van velen geopend voor de nefaste gevolgen van de zogenaamde vergroening/verduurzaming van de economie.

Reeds eerder schonk ik aandacht aan verschillende buitenlandse studies over de voor– en nadelen van groene banen. Daaruit bleek dat groene gesubsidieerde banen een forse verdringing van niet–groene ongesubsidieerde banen veroorzaakten. Bovendien, door de hogere energiekosten die met 'groen' zijn verbonden verslechtert de concurrentiepositie van de exporterende bedrijven, hetgeen opnieuw tot verlies aan banen leidt. Kortom, een en al ellende!

Maar in vele landen, zoals Duitsland, Engeland en Nederland, rustte er een taboe op het benoemen van het probleem, omdat het niet politiek correct is om kritiek te hebben op alles dat ook maar enigszins naar 'groen' zweemt. Dat taboe wordt nu doorbroken.

Onder de titel, 'Germany’s Green Jobs Miracle Collapses', rapporteerde Daniel Wetzel in 'Die Welt':

Renewable energy was supposed to create tens of thousands of green jobs. Yet despite three-digit Euro billions of subsidies, the number of jobs is falling rapidly. Seven out of ten jobs will only remain as long as the subsidies keep flowing.

The subsidization of renewable energy has not led to a significant, sustainable increase in jobs. According to recent figures from the German Government, the gross employment in renewable energy decreased by around seven per cent to 363,100 in 2013.

Counting the employees in government agencies and academic institution too, renewable energy creates work for about 370,000 people.

This means, however, that only to about 0.86 percent of the nearly 42 million workers, which are employed in Germany, work in the highly subsidized sector of renewable energy. Much of this employment is limited to the maintenance and operation of existing facilities.

In the core of the industry, the production of renewable energy systems, only 230,800 people were employed last year: a drop of 13 percent within one year, which is primarily due to the collapse of the German solar industry.

There is no improvement in sight, according to the recent report by the Federal Government. It says: “Overall, a further decline of employees will probably be observed in the renewable energies sector this and next year.”

15 years after the start of green energy subsidies through the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the vast majority of jobs from in this sector are still dependent on subsidies. .

Subsidies for the generation of green electricity have been paid for almost 15 years and have piled up into a three-digit billion sum, which has to be paid over 20 years by electricity consumers through their electricity bills. This year alone, consumers must subsidize the production of green electricity to the tune of around 20 billion Euros. A lasting effect on the labour market is not obvious. ...

The report by the Federal Government explicitly estimates only the „gross employment“ created primarily by green subsidies. The same subsidies, however, have led to rising costs and job losses in many other areas, such as heavy industry and commerce as well as conventional power plant operators.  For a net analysis, the number of jobs that have been prevented or destroyed as a result would have to be deducted from the gross number of green jobs.

Official figures for the net effect of renewables on employment in Germany were originally supposed to be presented in July, according to the Federal Economics Ministry. However, the presentation has now been delayed until the autumn.

Dat soort cijfers dient mijns inziens niet door het belanghebbende ministerie te worden geleverd, want dat zal toch moeilijk aan de verleiding weerstand kunnen bieden om de zaak mooier voor te stellen dan die is. Zo'n klusje dient aan een onafhankelijke instituten te worden opgedragen (maar waar vind je die tegenwoordig nog in landen waarin de overheid een stevige greep heeft op dit soort informatieverschaffing?). 

Researchers such as the president of the Munich-based IFO institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, believe that the net effect of subsidies for renewable energy on the labour market is equal to zero:

“Whoever claims that net jobs have been created must prove that the capital intensity of production in the new sectors is smaller than in the old ones. There are no indications for that. ”

“There is no positive net effect on employment by the EEG,” said Sinn: “Through subsidies for inefficient technologies not a single new job has been created, but wealth has been destroyed.“

Lees verder hier. 

In Engeland waarschuwde de Gordon Hughes  reeds in 2011 voor de mythe van de groene banen. Hij deed dat in een rapport dat was vervaardigd op verzoek van de 'Global Warming Policy Foundation' (GWPF).

In his report The Myth of Green Jobs, published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Professor Gordon Hughes (Edinburgh University) dispels this assumption by finding that

• The government target for generating electricity from renewable energy sources will involve a capital cost that is 9-10 times the amount required to meet the same demand by relying upon conventional power plants.

• The extra investment required for renewable energy – about £120 bln – will be diverted from more productive uses in the rest of the economy.

• Increases in the cost of energy together with the diversion of investment funds means that many manufacturing firms will either go bankrupt or relocate.

• It is impossible for the UK to acquire a long-term comparative advantage in the manufacture of renewable energy equipment by any combination of policies that are both feasible and affordable.

• Policies to promote renewable energy could add 0.6-0.7 percentage points per year to core inflation from now to 2020.

• The cumulative impact of these policies could amount to a loss of 2-3% of potential GDP for a period of 20 years or more.

“Claims by politicians and lobbyists that green energy policies will create a few thousand jobs are not supported by the evidence. In terms of the labour market, the gains for a small number of actual or potential employees in businesses specialising in renewable energy has to be weighed against the dismal prospects for a much larger group of workers producing tradable goods in the rest of the manufacturing sector,” Professor Hughes said.

Lees verder hier.

Het lijkt mij nu wel duidelijk.

Voor mijn eerdere DDS–bijdragen zie hier.