Syria is gradually breaking into three. The forces of Mr Assad recently seized the initiative but they cannot defeat the opposition and instead are consolidating their grip on the western spine of the country. From Damascus and Homs to Hama and Latakia, the regime is carving out a coastal state. Meanwhile, the rebels are doing the same in the Euphrates valley stretching from Turkey to Iraq through open desert. On July 22nd they took over Khan al-Asal, a town close to Aleppo, a divided northern city. As extreme Islamists among the rebels gain in strength, rumours abound that al-Qaeda-related groups will declare a religious state. Already, they fly black flags above mini-emirates.