Onzekerheid over warmste jaar

Verzwijgen foutenmarge zet publiek op het verkeerde been.

De discussie over de bewering dat 2014 het warmste jaar ooit zou zijn geweest woedt nog steeds. Hierbij dient te worden aangetekend dat we echter pas sinds ongeveer 1850 over enigszins nauwkeurige temperatuurmetingen beschikken. Op een geologische tijdschaal is dat een zeer korte periode.

Deze bewering kwam onder meer van het ´NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies´, een semi-autonome dochter van de NASA, die meeprofiteert van de wetenschappelijke reputatie van de moeder, maar die het vaak niet kan nalaten een alarmistische draai te geven aan de resultaten van haar onderzoek.

Onder de titel, ´Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record ... but we're only 38% sure we were right´, schreef David Rose voor ´The Mail on Sunday´:

Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’. But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all. ...

The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true.

In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond. ….

Aldus David Rose.

Lees verder hier.

Gavin Schmidt zal dit toch niet met opzet hebben gedaan? Toch?

Voor mijn eerdere DDS-bijdragen zie hier.