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Huidige koude veroorzaakt door opwarming?
Tarten van logica.
Mainstream klimatologen zoeken hun toevlucht tot de meest bizarre redeneringen om toch maar aan te tonen dat de huidige koude in NoordEuropa in overstemming is met de menselijke broeikashypothese (AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming). Dit soort wanhoopspogingen zijn volgens Thomas Kuhn kenmerkend voor de terminale fase van een paradigma. Klimaatsceptici zijn maar al te graag behulpzaam om deze terminale fase te bekorten en het AGW-paradigma uit zijn lijden te verlossen.
De bekende Duitse meteoroloog KlausEckart Puls legt op de website van EIKE (Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie) uit waarom hun redenering niet klopt. De onvermoeibare Pierre Gosselin heeft zijn analyse in het Engels vertaald. Ik pik er een aantal elementen uit.
European Institute For Climate And Energy Calls The New Warm-Cold Hypothesis Meteorological Nonsense!
Its getting colder because its getting warmer The meteorological illusory world of the climate alarmists.
For more than 10 years Germany and large parts of Europe have been seeing a trend to colder winters with considerable phases of snow and cold, especially over the last five winters. This is in stark contradiction to the established climate science. For example in 2000 we heard from IPCC climate scientist and lead author Mojib Latif: Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like what we saw 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.
Today in 2013 we are seeing harsher winters persisting until the end of March! This is an embarrassing calamity for German climate alarmists, who 2 years began concocting a meteorologically adventurous hypothesis in an attempt save face.
The alarmists:
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research now sees the harsh winters as being a consequence of global warming, which now causes icy winds in the Arctic to find their way unobstructed to Europe because of climate change.
Lets look at the facts. The winters in northern and central Europe have been cooling for more than 10 years .... This cooling trend is also observed in the mean annual temperature values, globally (stagnation), as well as in Germany ... The climate models had predicted nothing of the sort. Especially embarrassing is that 10 years ago we heard in interviews with leading climate scientists and read statements like the following:
Good-bye winter: Never again snow? In Germany cold winters are a thing of the past.
Today nature is contradicting the model projections for annual and wintertime temperatures. And now, after the fact, the alarmists are busy concocting dubious explanations.
The Alfred Wegener Institute:
The model calculations show that atmospheric pressure difference is weakened by minimal Arctic sea ice cover later on in the winter and thus cause the Arctic cold to move all the way down to middle latitudes.
From a meteorological standpoint, theres a lot to be said about that:
(1) Proof that winter weather in one region can be derived from the earlier summertime weather of another region has yet to be found by the generations of meteorology! If it were the case, the problems of longerterm seasonal forecasts would be finally solved. ...
(2) If the new alarmist hypothesis were conclusive, then we should have seen mostly cold winters for the last 20 years, because this is a time period where we have seen relatively little Arctic sea ice cover in the summertime . However, we only have seen a higher frequency of cold, snowy winters only over the last five years. ...
(3) The decisive argument against the new Warm-Cold-Hypothesis is as follows: If this hypothesis were scientifically, or at least statistically conclusive, then the NAO index (air pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores) over the last 30 years would have been negative for the most part. However, the exact opposite is the case.
Lees verder hier
Maar, zoals gebruikelijk in de klimaatdiscussie, schenken de media eenzijdig aandacht aan de verhalen van de alarmisten. De weerlegging ervan door de klimaatsceptici krijgt minder of geen aandacht. Dat is één van de redenen dat AGW nog steeds niet passé is.
Voor meer van Klaus-Eckart Puls, zie hier.
Voor mijn eerder DDS-bijdragen, zie hier.
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