Goedkope olie fnuikend voor ontwikkeling hernieuwbare energie

Volgens conventional wisdom konden de prijzen van fossiele brandstoffen alleen maar stijgen. Dat bleek een misvatting.

Eerder schreef ik over de mogelijke geopolitiek implicaties van de daling van de olieprijs. Zie hier. Vandaag aandacht voor de mogelijke gevolgen daarvan voor de ontwikkeling van hernieuwbare energie.

De veronderstelling dat de prijzen van fossiele brandstoffen alleen maar zouden kunnen stijgen, was een van de pijlers van het huidige klimaat– cum energiebeleid. Deze veronderstelling bleek onjuist. Wat betekent dit voor de toekomst van hernieuwbare energie?

Onder de titel, 'New era of cheap oil 'will destroy green revolution'', rapporteerde Tom Bawden in 'The Independent':

As the price of a barrel falls below $60, the long-term impact on wind, solar and hydro-power could be catastrophic for the planet. [Noot HL: De bekende klimaathysterie, waaraan vele Britse media zijn verknocht.]

The collapsing oil price that is reshaping the global economy could derail the green energy revolution by making renewable power sources prohibitively bad value, experts have warned.

Oil tumbled below $60 a barrel for the first time in more than five years yesterday – a fall of 44 per cent since June. It is forecast to fall further.

A new “era of cheap oil” would be good news for consumers and motorists – but analysts say the consequences for politics, industry and the climate could be even more radical.

The ripple effects could help the Conservatives to remain in power at next year’s general election by making voters feel richer as bills fall – while hurting Scotland’s oil-reliant economy and setting back its campaign for independence.

The falling prices could damage the North Sea and fledgling fracking industries and make it harder for the UK to hit its legally binding targets to cut carbon emissions. But the biggest threat posed by falling oil and gas prices – in the UK and globally – is to the renewable energy industry dominated by wind-, solar- and hydro-power, experts say.

“Renewable energy subsidies have been mostly sold to the public on the basis of the economic benefits,” said Peter Atherton, an energy analyst with Liberum Capital. “But the economic arguments hinged on the idea that fossil fuel prices would get more expensive, while expensive renewable subsidies would be able to come down over time. That’s looking doubtful now.”

Anne Robinson, director of consumer policy at the uSwitch price comparison website, said: “More subsidies are likely to be needed [for green power] as the gap between the cost of fossil fuel power and renewable power gets bigger.” The extra subsidies would be borne by households in the form of higher energy bills.

Green energy technologies such as solar and wind had been banking on sharp increases in fossil fuel prices to make them increasingly competitive and help to attract the huge amount of investment required to build renewable power plants. But that “economic case” is now in danger of being lost, with the environmental argument seen by many as being insufficient to drive through high levels of green energy investment. ...

Falling fossil fuel prices will make a wide range of products and services cheaper as transport and energy costs reduce the cost of manufacturing and distributing them. This should feed through into higher consumer spending, which is good for the economy, not least because it will boost VAT receipts.

Lees verder hier.

Zou er ergens in Nederland worden nagedacht over de gevolgen van de lagere olieprijzen voor het Nederlandse energiebeleid en in het bijzonder het Energieakkoord? Afgezien van de hier uitentreuren herhaalde bezwaren tegen dat akkoord, zouden de lagere olieprijzen toch de genadeklap voor dat megalomane project moeten betekenen. Maar ja, het is een mengsel van quasi–religieus klimaatcatastrofegeloof en politiek prestige. Dat verdwijnt minder snel dan de miljarden die belanghebbenden opstrijken bij de uitvoering van dat akkoord.

Voor mijn eerdere DDS–bijdragen zie hier.