Die verschrikkelijke opwarming die maar niet wil komen

Moeder Natuur trekt haar eigen plan.

Klimaatalarmisten zijn tegenwoordig niet te benijden, want die verschrikkelijke opwarming van de aarde wil maar niet komen. Hun geloofwaardigheid is dus in het geding. Hoe wordt daarop in alarmistische kringen gereageerd? Het psychische verwerkingsproces doorloopt verschillende stadia volgens een bekend patroon.

Onder de titel, 'Grasping For Pause-ible Deniability On Climate Change', schreef Greg Jones hierover voor 'The Federalist':

Climate change has a major problem on its hands: the Earth’s average surface temperature has failed to significantly increase in nearly two decades, and all this despite ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Unlike the globe, this controversy has been simmering for the past several years. Skeptics have increasingly pointed to the pause as proof they were right all along while the warming faithful’s reaction to the ever-mounting evidence provides a perfect case study in modern psychology’s Five Stages of Loss and Grief.

Maar de vraag is of klimaatalarmisme nu zijn dieptepunt heeft bereikt.

Now, after a roller coaster of emotions and barrage of media tantrums, it seems the issue is settled, sort of. In a recent paper in the journal Science, a team of researchers actually acknowledges the pause and attempts to explain it. But it’s not just any team—it includes prominent climate–change crusader and plaintiff to right–wing pundits Michael Mann.

Mann’s endorsement of a pause is about as close to acceptance as possible, the theological equivalent of Richard Dawkins saying, “Okay, so maybe there’s a God.” It was Mann that created the infamous “hockey stick” graph so often referenced by the climate-change crowd.

But Mann’s admission comes with a qualifier. Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have created what he conveniently labels a “false pause,” and when it has run its course global warming will accelerate even faster than it never did before. When does this Mad Max–style scenario start? Well no one can say for sure, but it’s coming, just you wait. ...

As is often the case with predicting the climate, however, the certainty proclaimed in the headlines is anything but certain. This isn’t the first time researchers have attempted to explain what they have previously denied. To date, there are more than 52 scientific theories attempting to solve the pause that doesn’t exist, from a lazy sun to trade winds to the wrong types of El Niño’s. But for some reason Mann’s explanation is the one; 53 is apparently the magic number. ...

Mann’s paper encapsulates perfectly the issue between skeptics of climate change and the hard–core believers: something in the models is always missing that is later found. What was wrong last time has been corrected, even though last time nothing was wrong. The same models that are considered gospel always come up short, only to be revised as gospel yet again. ...

Conclusie:

Don’t expect full acceptance anytime soon, however. In fact, a recent Nature paper defends the accuracy of the very models that failed to predict the very pause that didn’t exist that now does exist but only because the models were wrong. No, this is not a Zen koan: it’s modern climate science.

But it doesn’t have to be.

Aldus Greg Jones.

Lees verder hier.

Voor mijn eerdere DDS–bijdragen zie hier.