'De euro heeft hooguit 60% overlevingskans'
Een Amerikaanse denktank acht de kans op een val van de euro 40 procent.
"The really worrying thing is a 40 percent chance the eurozone might break up altogether...over the next couple of years or so," aldus Robin Bew, directeur van de Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), gelieerd aan het magazine The Economist.
Bew geeft beleggers die terughoudend zijn over de nabije toekomst van de euro groot gelijk: "If you look at what markets are doing at the moment, it's not clear to us they've got that much time. We're becoming increasingly worried not just about this kind of balance sheet recession, but also what is going on in the euro zone specifically, and the danger something goes very badly wrong there quite soon."
De gevolgen van het uiteenvallen van de eurozone zouden volgens Bew groot zijn: "If you look at banks not just in Europe, but banks in America too, they have enormous exposure - cross-border exposure - to sovereign debt and also to private sector debt, which would also be affected. You'd have to be worry about another wave of banking crises, and that's not just a European bank problem."
De kans dat er een mondiale recessie komt op de korte termijn schat Bew in op 40 procent.
