Afrikaanse boeren de dupe van Russische exportverbod op graan

The number of derivative contracts in commodities increased by more than 500% between 2002 and 2008, a process that accelerated at the end of the last decade, when the collapsing US mortgage market and global recession were followed by a huge spike in food prices. There is clearly a causative link between these two phenomena. But clear battlelines have emerged in the argument over which way the arrow points.

In 2007 food prices rose across the board. The FAO’s food index increased by 26% that year. So far this year the index is slightly down. Conclusion: the great price disruption of 2010 looks, for now, more like a rational response to a single supply shock than a measure of fundamental shifts in world food markets.

Since 1950, the world’s population has gone from 2.5 billion people to 6.7 billion. No less than 75 million people a year are added to this number, the world’s population is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050 - according to the United Nations. This will lead to an increased need for staple crops for human and livestock consumption. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that more than 85 percent of this additional demand will come from densely populated, developing countries – Asia and Africa.