Poetin vreest ondermijning Russische dominantie gasmarkt door opkomst schaliegas

De opkomst van relatief goedkoop schaliegas kan grote gevolgen hebben voor Ruslands dominantie op de gasmarkt. Aanvankelijk heeft voormalig en toekomstig president Poetin de betekenis van deze nieuwe energiebron trachten te bagatelliseren en op de potentiële milieurisico's daarvan gewezen. Op dit moment neemt hij echter een realistischer positie in.

'Energy in Depth' rapporteert daarover het volgende: 

Mere months after former and future Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly tried to undermine the safety of hydraulic fracturing and shale development as a whole, he has now changed his tune. As highlighted by Platts, UPI, and Bloomberg, Putin now acknowledges the game-changing nature of America’s development of natural gas from shale. More specifically, Putin believes that hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in the United States “can seriously reshape the structure of hydrocarbons markets.” He also said that shale development will provide tough competition for his country as one of many “external shocks” to which Russia will have to respond, adding that this undermining of Russia’s hegemony in the global gas market is part of an “era of turbulence.” 

What’s the upshot here? Russia is scrambling to undermine the shale revolution, not only in its own back yard (Poland has enormous shale gas resources and is moving forward with development) but also throughout the world. If countries previously dependent on Russia or OPEC suddenly discover that they have more leverage over the prices these countries charge — or if they discover their own shale resources at home — the control once wielded by OPEC countries and the Russian Federation will be considerably reduced. And with that loss of power comes a considerable loss of public funding; the Russian government is heavily dependent upon oil and gas tax revenue (in 2008, one-third of Russia’s total government revenue came from oil and gas production), and in 2010 Saudi Arabia generated more than $180 billion in oil export revenues.

Creating jobs, growing the economy, reducing the deficit, and even weakening hostile regimes. Is there anything the shale revolution can’t do?

Lees verder hier.